Houston Inventory Hits a Record While Rates Slip to 6.65%
Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell a second straight week to 6.65%, but the number that moves deal math is Houston's 40,750 active listings — the most ever — with 5.5 months of supply and the median sale taking 53 days.
What the numbers say
| 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac, Aug 20) | 6.65%, down from 6.67% the prior week and 6.58% a year ago |
| 15-year fixed | 5.95%, down from 5.96% |
| 10-year Treasury (Aug 20) | 4.69%, up from 4.68% a week earlier |
| Houston active listings (July) | 40,750, up 3.4% year over year — the highest level ever recorded |
| Months of inventory | 5.5 |
| Single-family sales (July) | 8,340, up 1.6% year over year |
| Median price | $340,000, up 0.6% year over year |
| Days on market | 53, against 50 a year ago |
Why the rate move is the smaller story
Two basis points off the 30-year average is not what changes a deal. The 10-year Treasury barely moved either, which is the number that tends to drag DSCR pricing along with it. The consequential number this month is 40,750 active listings — the most Houston has ever had on the market at once, with months of supply at 5.5 and the median sale taking 53 days rather than 50.
What record inventory does to a flip exit
Days on market is measured on homes that sold. Sitting inventory does not appear in that 53-day figure at all, which is why a market with record listings and a rising median time to sale deserves a longer hold assumption than last year's. Each additional month is carry: interest on drawn funds, taxes, insurance, and any HOA.
The practical move is to run the same deal at your expected hold and at two or three months beyond it, then look at what survives. A project that only works at a four-month exit in a five-and-a-half-month market is a thin project. The deal calculator takes months-to-sell as an input for exactly this reason.
What it does to a rental hold
The same conditions read differently if the plan is to keep the property. Record listings mean choice and negotiating room on the buy, and a DSCR loan qualifies on the property’s cash flow rather than personal income, so the question is whether market rent clears the payment at today’s pricing. Where a flip exit looks tight, the flip-versus-rent comparison on the calculator will show whether refinancing into a hold leaves cash in the deal or takes it out.
Worth watching this week
Mortgage applications land Wednesday and the next Freddie Mac survey Thursday. Neither is likely to move deal math on its own, but a third consecutive weekly decline would start to look like a trend rather than noise.
Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, August 20, 2026
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (DGS10), FRED
- Houston Association of Realtors monthly MLS report, July 2026
Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.
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