ACP Investor Brief — Daily

Short reads on rates, Houston and Texas market data, and what both mean for investor financing. Published Monday, Wednesday and Friday, with a recap and look-ahead on Sunday.

• The Mortgage That Prices Your Buyer Rose 64 Basis Points in Four Weeks. The Ten-Year Rose 26. October 14, 2026
  Freddie Mac's 30-year average went from 6.76% on September 10 to 7.40% on October 8, seven consecutive weekly increases. Over the same four weeks the 10-year Treasury went from 4.95% to 5.21%. The spread between them widened from 181 basis points to 219. That gap is not Treasury risk and it is not inflation: it is the premium charged on the loan your exit buyer needs, and it means the resale exit on a Houston flip deteriorated roughly three times faster than the refinance exit over the same four weeks.
• Houston Took Back More Houses Than Any Metro in America Last Month. Texas Forecloses in 155 Days Against a National 563. October 12, 2026
  Houston recorded 448 completed foreclosures in August, the most of any US metro, with Dallas second at 402 and San Antonio third at 256. Texas produced 1,835 of the nation's 5,794 bank repossessions that month - 31.7% of the total on 12.1% of the foreclosure starts - because Texas forecloses in 155 days against a national average of 563. Set against 38,947 Houston listings sitting at 54 days on market, it is the one seller pool whose number comes from a loan balance rather than a neighbour's comp.
• Weekly Recap: The Ten-Year Fell, the Auctions Were Strong, and the Mortgage Still Went to 7.40% October 11, 2026
  The ten-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.24% against 5.28% a week earlier, and Treasury sold a ten-year note at 5.300% on Wednesday with a 2.77 bid-to-cover. Freddie Mac's thirty-year went up anyway, 7.28% to 7.40% and a seventh straight weekly increase, which widened the spread over the benchmark from 204 to 218 basis points in five sessions. On HAR's $330,000 Houston median that twelve basis points takes about $3,900 of reachable price out of your exit buyer - in a week when the bond market rallied.
• The 30-Year Hit 7.40% on Its Seventh Straight Weekly Rise. The Ten-Year Fell That Same Week. October 9, 2026
  Freddie Mac's 30-year average reached 7.40% on October 8, the seventh consecutive weekly increase and the highest print since November 2023. The 10-year Treasury went the other way, closing at 5.22% on the same day after touching 5.31% on Monday. Twelve basis points on the mortgage side took roughly $3,500 of reachable price out of the buyer who takes your renovated house, which is 29% of the entire gross margin on a typical Houston flip. It happened in a week when the benchmark eased.
• The Ten-Year Printed 5.31% Monday, the High of 2026. Finished New Homes Are Down 27.1%. October 7, 2026
  The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on October 5, its highest level this year, against 4.19% on the first trading day of January. Freddie Mac's 30-year average is 7.28%. The same monthly payment that financed $264,000 a year ago finances $239,835 today, which is about $30,000 of purchasing power out of the buyer who takes your renovated house off your hands. Against that, finished new homes came in 27.1% below a year ago.
• Case study: Rates and taxes killed his deal math. Here's how we fixed it. October 6, 2026
  A Houston investor told us higher rates and rising property taxes had made it hard to find a deal that pencils. On a six-month hold, a 2-point rate increase on a $200,000 loan costs about $2,000. Five percent off a $250,000 purchase saves $12,500. The rate is rent. The price is forever.
• 161 Days of Carry Costs $14,567. Houston's Typical Flip Grossed $12,210. October 5, 2026
  ATTOM's Q2 2026 report puts the typical US flip at 161 days from purchase to resale. HAR has a Houston house selling in 54 days. The 107 days in between are rehab, permits and waiting - and at 10% on a $235,500 project, with TDI's $3,506 Texas insurance average and Harris County taxes running, the full 161 days costs $14,567, or $90 a day. ATTOM's typical Houston flip grossed 3.7%, which on HAR's $330,000 median is $12,210. The carry is now bigger than the spread, and the only line in the deal that absorbs it is the purchase price.
• Weekly Recap: Hiring Stalled at 29,000 and the Thirty-Year Mortgage Went Up a Quarter Point Anyway October 4, 2026
  The ten-year Treasury closed the week at 5.28% against 5.17% a week earlier, and Freddie Mac's thirty-year survey jumped 25 basis points to 7.28% - up from 6.34% a year ago. September payrolls came in at 29,000 with July revised to a loss of 10,000, and the long end rose anyway, because ISM's manufacturing prices index went to 77.9% and August PCE printed 3.4%. On HAR's $330,000 Houston median that quarter point takes $8,148 of house away from your exit buyer at an unchanged payment.
• Houston's Typical Flip Grossed 3.7% Last Quarter. Selling Costs Alone Run 7%. October 2, 2026
  ATTOM's Q2 2026 flipping report landed Thursday. The typical flipped home grossed 3.7% over its purchase price in Houston, 2.8% in Austin, 1.8% in Dallas, and lost 0.3% in San Antonio - against 21.5% nationally. On a $330,000 exit a 3.7% gross spread is $11,774, and selling costs at 7% of the sale are $23,100. Meanwhile the ten-year Treasury printed 5.29% on Wednesday, clearing the 5.26% close of June 2007, and Freddie Mac's thirty-year survey went to 7.28%.
• National Prices Sped Up to 1.9% in July. Dallas Went Negative. The Ten-Year Printed 5.24%. September 30, 2026
  Case-Shiller and FHFA both landed Tuesday and both showed national price growth accelerating - 1.93% and 2.6% over twelve months. Dallas fell 0.44%, FHFA's Texas division ran 1.5 points behind the country at 1.1%, and Houston's August median was $5,000 lower than a year ago. Meanwhile the ten-year Treasury added 28 basis points in four sessions to 5.24%, its highest daily print since 2007, and that move alone takes $17,488 off what a $2,200 monthly payment buys your exit buyer.
• Case Study, Part Two: What the Market Would Have to Do to Close a $22,614 Refinance Gap September 29, 2026
  The Houston rental that came up $22,614 short at refinance only closes on its own if insurance falls 52%, below its 2020 level, or the thirty-year falls about a point to 6.01%, or rent rises $166 a month. A 10% premium cut and a quarter-point rate drop together still leave it $12,920 short. Waiting on the outlook costs carry every month it takes.
• Case Study: The Rent Never Changed. The Refinance Came Up $22,614 Short. September 28, 2026
  A Houston rental bought on hard money, renting at the city's $2,412 average, penciled its refinance on a 2020-era $1,987 premium and a 6.30% rate. At the refinance the premium was $3,506 and the rate 7.03%, and the loan the rent supports fell from $225,000 to $202,386. Texas insurance filings just turned negative, but at negative 1.8% that is worth about $790 of loan.
• Texas Insurance Filings Turned Negative. The Five Years Before Them Already Took $19,000 of Loan Off a Houston Rental. September 28, 2026
  The Texas Department of Insurance is now showing filed rate requests of negative 0.8% for August and negative 1.8% across June through August - the first negative prints in five years. They arrive after the average Texas homeowners premium went from $1,987 in 2020 to $3,506 in 2025, which is $126.58 a month, and at a 7.03% thirty-year that is about $19,000 of supportable debt gone from a rental file. The ten-year closed Friday at 5.17% after touching 5.18% on Thursday, its highest print since 2007.
• The Ten-Year Printed 5.18% This Week. Houston's Average Rent Fell Two Dollars in a Year. September 27, 2026
  The ten-year Treasury closed Thursday at 5.18%, the highest print since 2007, and Freddie Mac's survey crossed seven percent at 7.03%. Houston's average single-family rent in August was $2,412 against $2,414 a year ago. Everything that moved this week moved on the financing side: on the median Houston house the same monthly payment now reaches about $2,700 less than it did last Friday and about $8,900 less than it did on 1 September.
• The 30-Year Crossed 7%. After the Builder's Cut, a New House Costs $315 a Month Less Than the Resale Median. September 25, 2026
  Freddie Mac's survey printed 7.03% on Thursday, the first reading above 7% since January 2025, and the ten-year closed Wednesday at 5.11%, the highest print of the month. At that rate the median existing home runs $2,291 a month against $1,976 for the median new home after the average 6% builder cut, a gap of $315, and the resale house would need a 5.62% rate to match it. Houston's 38,947 active listings and 54 days on market are the market a renovated house sells into.
• Houston's Listings Rose 0.5%. Its Sales Fell 11.5%. The Extra Supply Came From the Buyer Side. September 23, 2026
  Houston closed 7,100 single-family sales in August, down 11.5% on the year, against 38,947 active listings that were up just 0.5%. Months of inventory reached 5.3 against 4.9 nationally, and days on market went to 54 from 52. Two years of a 26% inventory build has moved the median price about two percent, from $336,940 in August 2024 to $330,000 now.
• 38% of Builders Cut Prices in September. The Average Cut Is Worth Sixty Basis Points to Your Buyer. September 21, 2026
  NAHB's September survey fell to 32, the lowest since September 2025, and 38% of builders cut prices, by 6% on average, while 66% offered other incentives. On July's $393,800 new-home median at twenty percent down and 6.95%, that cut does the same thing to the buyer's payment as a rate of about 6.35%. In Houston, pending sales fell 3.5% on the year while closings fell 11.5%.
• The Fed Raised Rates on Wednesday. By Friday Your Buyer Reached $6,300 Less House. September 20, 2026
  The FOMC raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75-4.00% on Wednesday on a unanimous vote, and the ten-year Treasury finished Friday at 5.01% - five basis points above the previous Friday and twenty-two above where it started the month. Freddie Mac's survey caught up on Thursday with a nineteen-basis-point jump to 6.95%. On the Houston median at twenty percent down, the same payment that reached $330,000 a week ago now reaches about $323,700.
• Seven San Antonio Houses Clear the Purchase Test. Not One of Them Works as a Rental. September 18, 2026
  Every active single-family listing in Bexar County between $80,000 and $300,000 — 2,121 of them — against the same purchase test we run on every file. Seven clear at the asking price, and all seven survive the remarks pass, which almost never happens. Then we ran the same houses as rentals and nothing in the county reached 0.60 coverage.
• Completions Fell 27% in a Year. Everything Else in Thursday's Release Was Noise. September 18, 2026
  Census reported Thursday that August housing completions ran at a 1,128,000 annual rate, down 27.1% on the year - the only movement in the release that clears its own margin of error. Permits held at 1,394,000, up 3.5% on the year, and the South took 745,000 of them. Freddie Mac's weekly survey jumped 19 basis points to 6.95% while the ten-year fell back to 4.94% from Wednesday's 5.01%.
• The Ten-Year Printed 5.00%. Your Cash-Out Refinance Just Shrank by $4,300. September 16, 2026
  The ten-year Treasury closed at 5.00% on Tuesday, its first five handle since October 2023, and Mortgage News Daily's 30-year average reached 7.22%. The Fed raised the target range to 3.75-4.00% this afternoon on a unanimous vote, its first increase since July 2023 - and the ten-year fell on the news. On a stabilized rental underwritten to a 1.20 coverage ratio, the six-session move in the index took about $4,300 off the loan the same rent supports.
• Your Exit Buyer Lost $12,000 of Budget in Eight Days. The Fed Meets Tuesday. September 14, 2026
  Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year at 6.76% on 10 September, but the daily average touched 7.07% on Thursday, the highest since May 2025, after producer prices rose 0.4% and consumer prices 0.4% with gasoline up 27.4% on the year. Futures now put the odds of a Fed hike on Wednesday near 80%, against a target range held at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote in July. On the Houston median at twenty percent down, the same $1,705 payment that reached $330,000 two weeks ago now reaches about $318,000.
• Twenty-Five Houses Out of 7,167 — and the Ten-Year Took Back Part of the Margin September 13, 2026
  Across four Texas county screens this week — Harris, Bexar, northern Travis with Williamson, and ten miles around downtown Dallas — 7,167 active single-family listings went through the same test: 75% of after-repair value, less repairs, less closing. Twenty-five cleared at the asking price. Of 531 tenant-occupied rentals screened separately across three markets, none did. Underneath all of it the ten-year Treasury went from 4.78% to 4.95% in six sessions and finished Friday at 4.96%.
• Three Texas Markets, 531 Tenanted Rentals for Sale, and Not One That Works at the Asking Price September 11, 2026
  Houston returned 325 of them and none cleared. San Antonio returned 181 and none cleared. The corridor south and east of Houston returned 25 and none cleared. A tenant in place is not a discount — it is something the seller charges for. But eight of the corridor's twenty-five carry debt comfortably once the price comes down to what a lender would actually fund, which is the whole argument for writing an offer instead of paying list.
• Four Texas Markets, One Purchase Test, 8,749 Listings. Only One Answer Was the Same Everywhere. September 11, 2026
  Over two days we ran 8,749 active listings and 676 tenant-occupied listings through the same hard money purchase test in Dallas, San Antonio, Austin and the Houston region. The markets disagreed on almost everything except one answer.
• We Screened 1,574 Listings South of Houston. Putting Closing Costs Inside the Loan Cut the Board in Half. September 11, 2026
  Twenty-one zip codes across Harris, Galveston and Brazoria. 814 listings had enough closed sales in their own subdivision to value honestly, and 65 ranked. Then we stopped letting the borrower bring the closing costs and made the advance carry them — purchase, repairs and closing, all inside the ARV. Twenty-four files within 20% of the ask became twelve. Eleven within 12% became three. One clears at the asking price on a full rehab assumption. Six do on a light one.
• We Ran 1,074 Austin Metro Listings Through the Purchase Test. Three Cleared It. September 11, 2026
  Northern Travis and all of Williamson County — 1,074 active listings against 75% of after-repair value, less repairs, less closing. Three clear at the asking price, and none of them clear in ordinary condition. The rental category we screen for in Houston and San Antonio barely exists here: four listings in two counties, against 195 in Harris. And property tax swings a full point across two counties, which decides whether a rental carries itself long after the purchase price has stopped mattering.
• We Ran 2,105 San Antonio Listings Through the Purchase Test. Two Cleared It. September 11, 2026
  Every active single-family listing in Bexar County between $80,000 and $300,000 — 2,105 of them — against 75% of after-repair value, less repairs, less closing. Two clear at the asking price. On the rental side, 181 listings carry a tenant and not one of the 32 we comped works at any advance. The closing-cost assumption we had been using was also wrong, and it was wrong in the direction that hurts the cheapest houses most.
• The Seller Is Not Being Stubborn. Moving Costs Him $636 a Month. September 11, 2026
  Houston closed 7,100 single-family sales in August, down 11.5% from a year ago, against 38,947 active listings and 54 days on market. The listings are not piling up because more people are selling. They are piling up because the people who listed cannot afford to accept what a buyer will pay — and the arithmetic behind that is worth understanding before you write another offer.
• 330 Dallas Listings. Five Clear the Purchase Test. Nine Cash-Flow at Asking. September 10, 2026
  Every active single-family listing inside ten miles of downtown Dallas, run through one line of math. Five can be bought at the asking price with the loan still inside 75% of after-repair value. Nine cover their debt service at full list against closed leases on their own street.
• We Ran 3,658 Houston Listings Through the Purchase Test. Fifteen Cleared It. September 10, 2026
  Every active single-family listing in Harris County between $80,000 and $300,000 — 3,658 of them — against 75% of after-repair value, less repairs, less closing. Fifteen survive. Two work at the seller's asking price. The more useful half of this is why the other 3,643 fail, because most of them look cheap on a search results page.
• I Screened 325 Tenant-Occupied Houston Rentals. None of Them Clear the Test. September 10, 2026
  There are 325 single-family houses listed for sale across five Houston-area counties right now with a tenant already living in them, priced between $100,000 and $400,000. We valued each one against closed sales inside its own subdivision and ran the acquisition test at 75% of after-repair value. Zero clear it at the asking price. Four are within $35,000.
• A Marketed Duplex Projected $2,700 in Rent. The Comps Say $2,300. September 9, 2026
  Three Houston-area properties marketed to investors this week were run through the same screen any file on this desk gets. A duplex asking $162,000 carried a projected market rent of $2,600 to $2,800; comparable two-bedroom units in that zip code are asking $1,095 to $1,500. The deal still finances. It finances near a 1.20 coverage ratio rather than the 1.41 the projection implies.
• Builders Pulled More Permits and Broke Less Ground. Houston Has 40,750 Listings. September 7, 2026
  Markets are closed for Labor Day, leaving Friday's 4.78% ten-year as the last quote on the board. HAR's July report put Houston at 40,750 active listings — the highest count it has ever recorded — with 5.5 months of supply and 53 days on market. Nationally, July building permits rose 5.0% while housing starts fell 12.4%.
• Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Now the Argument Is About a Hike. September 6, 2026
  August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a forecast near 55,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the ten-year finished the week at 4.79% after touching 4.81% — its highest since October 2023. The 30-year fixed rose to 6.71%. Friday 11 September brings August CPI, the last major reading before the Fed meets.
• The Ten-Year Drifted Up to Close August. Friday Decides September. September 1, 2026
  The ten-year Treasury finished last week at 4.73% and touched 4.74% Monday, up from 4.64% midweek, while the 30-year fixed held flat at 6.735%. Texas sits at 5.4 months of inventory. Friday's August employment report decides whether the September rate-cut conversation comes back.
• Contract Signings Fell Again in the South — Your Exit Just Got Longer August 28, 2026
  Pending sales in the South fell 2.2% in July and sit 3.0% below a year ago, while purchase applications run 5% behind last year. Financing costs barely moved this week. The number of months you hold the property is what is squeezing Texas flips right now.
• Houston Inventory Hits a Record While Rates Slip to 6.65% August 24, 2026
  Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell a second straight week to 6.65%, but the number that moves deal math is Houston's 40,750 active listings — the most ever — with 5.5 months of supply and the median sale taking 53 days.

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