Weekly Recap: The Economy Added 165,000 Jobs and Mortgage Rates Did Not Move. Tuesday's CPI Votes Next.

By Steve Waller · November 8, 2026

Weekly Recap: The Economy Added 165,000 Jobs and Mortgage Rates Did Not Move. Tuesday's CPI Votes Next.

October payrolls rose 165,000, about three times the forecast, unemployment fell to 4.1%, and the odds of a December Fed hike rose to about 77%. Yet Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index finished the week at 7.17%, down from 7.27% a week earlier, and the 10-year closed near 4.86%. October CPI lands Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. Central, the same day the Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes.

Friday's question, answered

Friday's brief said the October jobs report would decide whether mortgage rates could stay below 7.2%. The report was strong, and rates stayed there anyway. The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 165,000 new jobs against a consensus of about 55,000. Unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 3.1% over the year. August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000, to 186,000 and 60,000.

On a normal day that combination pushes rates up. On Friday, Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index ended unchanged at 7.17%, tied for its lowest level since September 22. The 10-year sold off for a few minutes after 7:30, then went back to where it started. It closed near 4.86%, up about 2 basis points.

The week in five numbers

Mortgage News Daily 30-year: 7.17% Friday, from 7.27% the Friday before and 7.30% on Tuesday.
Freddie Mac 30-year: 7.18% on Thursday, from 7.24%, its third weekly decline in a row.
10-year Treasury: 4.84% on Thursday on the Fed's H.15 release, from 4.94% on October 30, and about 4.86% at Friday's close.
2-year Treasury: about 4.51% Friday, from 4.56% a week earlier. Two-year yields track what the Fed does next.
December hike odds: about 77% on CME FedWatch after the jobs report, from about 67% a week earlier. The target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.

Why a strong report did not lift mortgage rates

The bond market spent the week watching technology stocks, not the labor market. Mortgage News Daily called Friday's flat reaction paradoxical and said bonds had been preoccupied with concerns about the tech sector. HousingWire's Logan Mohtashami pointed to the same thing: swings in AI and chip stocks moved yields more than the payroll number did. When those stocks fall, money moves into Treasuries and holds long rates down.

That split matters. Short rates did react. The 2-year rose about 5 basis points on Friday as traders priced a more likely December hike. Long rates, which drive mortgage pricing, barely moved. The gap between what the Fed may do and what borrowers pay widened again this week, and it widened in borrowers' favor.

The risk is that the cushion depends on stocks. If technology shares steady, the bid for Treasuries fades, and a Fed that is still leaning toward a hike becomes the main thing bonds are pricing.

What this does to a deal you are underwriting now

On a $264,000 loan, 20% down on a $330,000 house, principal and interest at 7.17% is about $1,787 a month, against $1,805 at last Friday's 7.27%. Hold the payment at $1,805 and your exit buyer can now carry about $266,600 of loan, roughly $2,600 more than a week ago. The swing from here is larger than the gain. A quarter point higher, at 7.42%, cuts that buyer's loan to about $257,500. A quarter point lower, at 6.92%, raises it to about $270,700.

Fix and flip. The week's relief came from the stock market, not from the Fed. Price the resale at today's rate and do not count on more. The offer still starts with ARV times 70 to 75%, less repairs and closing costs.
Long-term rentals. On a $250,000 takeout, illustrative principal and interest is about $1,692 at 7.17%, against $1,709 at 7.27% and $1,734 at 7.42%. A file that covers only at this week's rate is a file to restructure, not to rush. Use the rate on your own term sheet.
Ground-up construction. Hiring at 165,000 a month keeps labor markets tight, and the report showed construction employment little changed. Lock trade bids where you can and keep contingency in the budget.
Single-family resale. Rates at their lowest since September help buyers at the margin, but the holidays slow showings. Listings that sat through the fall are still where an offer built from after-repair value gets a hearing.
Multifamily. A 10-year near 4.86% helps exit-cap and refinance assumptions only if it holds through a likely December hike. Underwrite to a 10-year near 5% until that decision is made.

Houston

HAR's October market report is due in mid-November. It will be the first local data to show whether October's drop in rates brought buyers back into contract. Until then the picture is the one September set: more homes for sale than a year ago, slower contract activity and longer marketing times. Sellers who missed the fall market are the ones most likely to take a formula-based offer before year end.

The week ahead

Monday, November 9. The $58 billion 3-year note auction.
Tuesday, November 10. October CPI at 7:30 a.m. Central. Because October 2025 prices were not collected during the 2025 shutdown, BLS will not publish a yearly rate for all items or core this time; watch the monthly figures. RBC expects 0.3% for both headline and core, and the Cleveland Fed nowcast is about 0.24% and 0.21%. September's yearly rate was 3.7%. The $42 billion 10-year note auction follows the same afternoon.
Wednesday, November 11. Veterans Day.
Thursday, November 12. The $25 billion 30-year bond auction, Freddie Mac's weekly survey and jobless claims.
Friday, November 13. October PPI at 7:30 a.m. Central.

Monday's brief takes up the question this week leaves open: whether a monthly CPI reading at or below 0.3% keeps the 10-year under 4.90% through Tuesday's auction, or whether a hot print joins a strong jobs report and makes December's hike close to certain.

The full report, and every earlier one, is available on ACP's website at acp-lending.com. Investors can sign up at acp-lending.com/investor-brief to receive new reports by email.

Sources

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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