Mortgage Rates Reached 7.42% as the 10-Year Crossed 5% Again. Producer Prices Are Next.

By Steve Waller · November 13, 2026

Wednesday's question, answered Thursday

Wednesday's brief asked whether 7.30% was one bad day inside a falling trend or the start of a turn. Thursday made it look like a turn. With the bond market closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, Thursday was the first full session after the hot CPI, and Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index rose another 0.12% to 7.42%. That is two consecutive trading days of +0.12% and 0.24% in total since Monday's 7.18%.

Why the 10-year moved again

The 10-year Treasury, which the Fed's H.15 release put at 4.98% on Tuesday, traded between 5.09% and 5.12% Thursday afternoon, back above 5% for the first time since October 22. Three things pushed it.

• Oil. The President posted that the U.S. does not need a deal with Iran, read as no near-term end to the conflict. Brent rose about 3.3% to just over $94 a barrel. Energy is what has driven most of this year's inflation, and gasoline was already up 37.4% from a year earlier in Tuesday's CPI.
• The Fed's tone. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said her bias is that further tightening will be needed. Money markets now price about a 91% chance of a quarter-point hike on December 9 and about 9% for a half point.
• The 30-year auction. The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.441%, 0.4 basis points above the when-issued level. Bid-to-cover was 2.36, against 2.54 at the previous sale, and indirect bidders took 68.1%, down from 72.3%. It was the weakest demand for the maturity since June. Combined with Tuesday's tailed 10-year sale, both long auctions of the November refunding needed a concession to clear.

Why Freddie Mac says rates fell

Freddie Mac's survey, released Thursday, showed the 30-year at 7.11%, down from 7.18% and the fourth straight weekly decline, the lowest in seven weeks. The 15-year fell to 6.45% from 6.57%. A year ago the two were 6.24% and 5.49%. This is not a contradiction. Freddie's survey collects rates Monday through Wednesday and averages the week, so it captured mostly the pre-CPI market. Mortgage News Daily tracks lender rate sheets each day. The weekly number is a lagging indicator; next Thursday's survey is the one that will show this week.

What this does to a deal you are underwriting now

On a $264,000 loan, 20% down on a $330,000 house, principal and interest was about $1,788 a month at Monday's 7.18%, $1,810 at Tuesday's 7.30%, and $1,831 at Thursday's 7.42%. Hold the payment at $1,788 and that buyer now carries about $257,800 of loan. Your exit buyer has lost roughly $6,200 of budget in four days, about $3,100 of it on Thursday alone.

• Fix and flip. Underwrite the resale at 7.40% or higher. The purchase price is still ARV times 70 to 75%, less repairs and closing costs. A softer resale ARV comes off what you pay, not off your margin.
• Long-term rentals. On a $250,000 takeout, illustrative principal and interest is about $1,694 at 7.18% and $1,734 at 7.42%, forty dollars a month since Monday. On a file covering near 1.0x, rerun coverage on the rate in your own term sheet before you commit.
• Ground-up construction. Today's producer price report is the materials read. Lock bids that are already in hand.
• Single-family resale. October's Houston data, below, shows more listings and fewer contracts. Sellers have less leverage than their list prices suggest.
• Multifamily. The 30-year closed near 5.45%. Exit-cap and refinance assumptions should start from a 10-year above 5%, not from the 4.8% range of early November.

Producer prices at 7:30 this morning

October PPI is due at 7:30 a.m. Central. Forecasts call for final demand up 0.4% and core up 0.3%, after September's 1.3% and 0.7%. September put the yearly rate at 6.3%, and forecasts for October run near 6.6% to 6.7%. A print at or below forecast would be the first inflation report in weeks that did not surprise to the upside. A print above it, after Tuesday's CPI, would leave little room to argue against a December hike, and the long end is already pricing that.

Houston

HAR's October report is out. Single-family sales fell 14.9% to 6,348, the slowest October in a decade, and pending sales fell 17.6%. The median price fell 3% to $320,000, its lowest since January 2024, while the average held near $421,100. Active listings rose 6.8% to 40,253, and supply stayed at 5.5 months against 5.1 a year ago, tied with September for the highest since 2012. Days on market averaged 59, the same as a year ago.

The new median moves our illustration. With 20% down on a $320,000 house, the loan is $256,000, about $1,776 a month at 7.42%. Prices are softening enough to offset part of the rate move, not all of it, and for a flipper the softer median is the more important number: it is your ARV, not just your buyer's payment.

The week ahead

• Friday, November 13. October PPI at 7:30 a.m. Central.
• Sunday, November 15. The weekly recap, including where the 10-year and Mortgage News Daily's index finish after PPI.
• Thursday, November 19. Freddie Mac's next weekly survey, the first to include this week's move.
• December 9. The next Fed decision, with a quarter-point hike now about 91% priced.

Sunday's recap will take up whether producer prices confirmed the turn, and whether 7.42% is the new range or the top of it.

The full report, and every earlier one, is available on ACP's website at acp-lending.com. Investors can sign up at acp-lending.com/investor-brief to receive new reports by email.

Sources

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Nov 12 2026
• Mortgage News Daily Rate Index
• Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates
• BLS Consumer Price Index, October 2026
• BLS Producer Price Index
• Seeking Alpha via TradingView: $25B 30-year auction tails on softer demand
• Saxo Asia Market Quick Take, Nov 13 2026
• Houston Agent Magazine: HAR monthly market update, October 2026

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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