Weekly Recap: Mortgage Rates Posted Their First Weekly Decline Since August. The Fed Decides Wednesday.

By Steve Waller · October 25, 2026

Wednesday's question, answered

Wednesday's brief said a Freddie Mac print below 7.40% would be the first weekly decline since August. Thursday it came in at 7.32%, down 8 basis points, with the 15-year at 6.68% from 6.71%. It is the first weekly drop since August and the last survey before the Fed meets. A year ago the 30-year stood at 6.19%, so borrowers are still paying more than a full point above last fall.

The daily index moved first. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index fell to about 7.30% on Thursday, its lowest since September 23, and ended Friday at 7.33%.

Why it moved: a 17-basis-point day in the ten-year

The Federal Reserve's H.15 release has the 10-year Treasury at 5.15% Monday, 5.12% Tuesday and 5.13% Wednesday, then 4.96% on Thursday, a 17-basis-point drop in one session. The 2-year fell from 4.81% to 4.65% the same day. Friday's official print is not out yet; Mortgage News Daily quoted the 10-year near 5.00% at Friday's close after a 4-basis-point bounce.

The cause was not inflation. Thursday's drop came alongside heavy selling in technology stocks, the same AI-sector worry that drove the dip two weeks ago. When stocks steadied Friday, yields climbed back. A rally driven by fear can reverse just as fast, and that is the main reason not to price a deal on Thursday's number.

The week in housing

• Builders. The NAHB index sits at 29, the lowest since 2012, and 43% of builders are cutting prices. That is still the main competitor to any resale exit near new construction.
• Construction. September starts fell 5.2% and single-family permits fell 4.0%. Completions are 14.0% below a year ago.
• Existing homes, nationally. NAR has September sales at a 3.99 million annual rate, with a median of $417,500, up 1.3% from a year ago. Inventory is 1.60 million, up 4.6%, which is 4.8 months of supply. In the South the median was $361,000, up just 0.2%.

What this does to a deal you are underwriting now

Take Houston's median of $325,000 with 20% down, a $260,000 loan. At 7.40% the payment is $1,800 a month. At 7.32% it is $1,786. That is $14 a month, or about $2,000 more loan at the same payment. At last year's 6.19% the same loan cost $1,591. This week gave back about 7% of the $209 a month your exit buyer has lost in a year.

• Fix and flip. Do not lift your exit price on one good week. The builder's 6% average price cut is worth about $108 a month to the same buyer, roughly eight times what the rate move gave back.
• Long-term rentals. On a $250,000 takeout, the 8 basis points is about $14 a month, $1,731 to $1,717 at the illustrative survey rates. Helpful on a file that misses coverage by a few dollars; it does not rescue one that misses by a hundred. Use the rate on your own term sheet.
• Ground-up construction. Falling permits mean less new supply next spring, but builder confidence at a 14-year low means more price competition this winter. Underwrite the sale at a concession and confirm the deal still clears the completed-value test.
• Multifamily. Completions down 14% helps occupancy next year. Rate relief this small does not change the cap-rate math on an acquisition.

Houston

HAR's September report showed 40,192 active listings, up 6.3% from a year ago, and 5.5 months of supply. Closed sales fell 5.7% to 7,030, and pending sales fell 11.6% to 6,789, which points to fewer closings in October. The median held at $325,000. Pending sales falling faster than closings means the backlog of unsold homes is still growing, and Houston has more supply than the national market. That is the setting in which a seller listens to an offer built from ARV times 70 to 75%, less repairs and closing costs.

The week ahead

• Tuesday, October 27. Census New Residential Sales for September at 9:00 a.m. Central. The months-of-supply figure on new homes will show whether the builders' price cuts are clearing inventory. The FOMC meeting also begins.
• Wednesday, October 28. FOMC decision and Chair Warsh's press conference, with the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. A Reuters poll had 94 of 100 economists expecting a hold, and CME pricing puts the chance of a hike near 10%. The vote split matters more than the decision: three members voted for a hike in July.
• Thursday, October 29. The first estimate of third-quarter GDP, expected near 3.0%, with the Atlanta Fed's model at 3.5%. September PCE inflation is expected at 3.6% headline and 3.1% core. Freddie Mac's survey also comes out.

The question for next week is whether Thursday's rally survives a hawkish Fed and a hot growth number. If the ten-year holds near 5.00%, the survey can slip again. If PCE comes in high, this week's relief is likely gone by Friday.

The full report, and every earlier one, is available on ACP's website at acp-lending.com. Investors can sign up at acp-lending.com/investor-brief to receive new reports by email.

Sources

• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 22, 2026
• Freddie Mac news release: Mortgage Rates Decrease to 7.32%
• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter, October 23, 2026
• Federal Reserve, H.15 Selected Interest Rates
• NAR, Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September
• Houston Agent Magazine, HAR September 2026 market update
• U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Indicator Release Schedule
• Newsquawk, Week in Focus October 26-30, 2026
• Yardeni QuickTakes, Economic Week Ahead October 26-30

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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