Weekly Recap: The Ten-Year Fell 15 Basis Points. Houston Inventory Passed 40,000 and Days on Market Hit 58.

By Steve Waller · October 18, 2026

The question Friday left open

Friday's brief ended on one question: would the 30-year mortgage finally follow the ten-year down, or would the spread hold near 230 basis points? The weekly survey has not answered it yet. The daily market has started to.

Freddie Mac's 30-year average printed 7.40% on October 15, flat on the week, with the 15-year at 6.71%. That survey is collected early in the week, before most of the bond rally landed. Mortgage News Daily's daily index, which reprices every afternoon, had the average top-tier 30-year at 7.33% on Thursday, more than a quarter point below the highs of the week before, and 7.37% on Friday after a small bounce.

So the retail rate your exit buyer is quoted today is already a few basis points under the survey figure. Thursday's survey is the first one that will capture it.

The ten-year, session by session

From the Treasury's daily par yield curve, the ten-year closed the previous Friday at 5.24%. Monday was Columbus Day and the bond market was shut. Then: 5.21% Tuesday, 5.19% Wednesday, 5.10% Thursday, 5.09% Friday. That is 15 basis points in four sessions.

The thirty-year Treasury went from 5.60% to 5.43%, and the two-year from 4.80% to 4.74%. The long end fell further than the short end, so the curve flattened a little. Mortgage News Daily tied most of the rally to worries about technology companies cutting AI-related spending, and noted that rising oil prices kept Friday's bond market from extending it.

Against Freddie's 7.40%, Thursday's 5.10% close leaves the spread at about 230 basis points. Against the daily index at 7.33%, it is about 223. Still far wider than the 181 it was on September 10.

The inflation data did not cooperate

The rally happened in spite of the week's inflation releases, not because of them.

• September CPI, Wednesday. All items +0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, core +0.3% and 2.6%, gasoline +34.2% on the year. Covered in Friday's brief.
• September PPI, Thursday. Final demand +1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year. Goods +2.6%, energy +10.8%, services +0.8%. Excluding foods, energy and trade services, producer prices rose 0.5% and 5.0%.

A 1.3% monthly PPI two weeks before an FOMC meeting where most participants already expected another increase by year end is not a reason for long rates to fall. The bond market looked past it to growth risk. That is a less durable reason than falling inflation, and it is worth remembering when you decide how much of this week's relief to put in an offer.

Houston: September is out, and inventory crossed 40,000

HAR's September update landed Wednesday. For single-family homes in the Houston MLS:

• Sales: 7,030, down 5.7% on the year.
• Pending sales: 6,789, down 11.6%. That is the forward number, and it is weaker than closings.
• Median price: $325,000, essentially flat on a year ago and down from August's $330,000. Average price $421,311, up 0.7%.
• Active listings: 40,192, up 6.3% on the year and up about 1,250 from August's 38,947.
• Months of inventory: 5.5 against 5.1 a year ago. Days on market: 58 against 56.

Every line moved the same direction: more houses, fewer contracts, longer waits. Prices have not broken. Time has. For a flip that means carry, and for an acquisition it means sellers who have sat for two months and are starting to hear it.

What the week did to your exit buyer

On the new Houston median of $325,000 with 20% down, the loan is $260,000.

• At Freddie's 7.40%, principal and interest is $1,800 a month.
• At a year-ago 6.27%, the same loan cost $1,604. Hold the payment there and today's buyer carries about $231,700, roughly $28,300 less loan and about $35,400 less house.
• If Thursday's survey follows the daily index to about 7.33%, the $1,800 payment carries about $261,800, around $1,800 more loan. Real, and small against the year.

On the hold side, the takeout prices off the ten-year, which already moved. On a $1,500 payment allowed by $1,800 of net operating income at 1.20 coverage, each 10 basis points off a takeout near 6.9% is worth roughly $2,300 of loan. These are illustrations, not quotes. ACP does not publish rates; use the rate on your own term sheet.

The week ahead

• Tuesday, October 20. Census New Residential Construction for September, 8:30am ET. August completions were down 27.1% on the year; fewer finished houses is the one structural support under a resale exit.
• Wednesday, October 21. Twenty-year Treasury bond reopening, the first coupon supply since the rally began.
• Thursday, October 22. Freddie Mac's weekly survey. If the 30-year prints near the daily index, the spread finally narrows. If it holds at 7.40% with the ten-year near 5.10%, the premium on your buyer's loan is the story again. Five-year TIPS auction the same day.
• Tuesday, October 27. Census New Residential Sales for September, 10:00am ET, and the first day of the FOMC meeting.
• Wednesday, October 28. FOMC decision, with the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent and a 1.3% PPI on the table.

How to work this week

• Underwrite the resale exit at 7.40% until the survey says otherwise. The daily index helps at the margin; it does not undo a year.
• Budget for 58 days on market, not 54. Houston's days on market rose four days in a single monthly release.
• Use the inventory on the buy side. 40,192 listings and falling pendings is the setting in which a seller takes a number built from the formula: ARV times 70 to 75 percent, less repairs, less closing costs.
• If you are refinancing into a rental, this was your week. The ten-year gave back 15 basis points. A hot PPI and a Fed meeting in ten days are reasons not to wait on it.

The full report, and every earlier one, is available on ACP's website at acp-lending.com. Investors can sign up at acp-lending.com/investor-brief to receive new reports by email.

Sources

• US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
• Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, 16 October 2026
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 15 October 2026
• Mortgage News Daily, Mortgage Rates Daily Index
• Mortgage News Daily, Another Big Improvement to Another 3 Week Low, 15 October 2026
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, September 2026
• Houston Association of Realtors, Monthly Housing Update and MLS Sales Activity, September 2026
• US Census Bureau, Economic Indicator release schedule
• Federal Reserve, FOMC calendars and information

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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