Weekly Recap: The Ten-Year Fell 34 Basis Points in October. Friday's Jobs Report Decides Whether It Holds.

By Steve Waller · November 1, 2026

Friday's question, answered

Friday's brief asked whether a 10-year below 5% could hold with two Fed officials already voting for a hike. Through the end of the week, it did. The Treasury's daily curve has the 10-year at 4.94% on Friday, down from 4.98% Thursday and 5.00% a week earlier. The 2-year fell further, to 4.56% from 4.69% a week ago. Mortgage News Daily's 30-year index ended the week at 7.27%, its lowest in more than a month, from 7.33% the Friday before.

The test has only been postponed. The October jobs report lands Friday, and it is the first hard number the Fed sees before December.

October in one line: 34 basis points

On October 2 the 10-year stood at 5.28%. It finished the month at 4.94%, a drop of 34 basis points, in a month when the Fed's own committee moved closer to another hike, not further from one. Freddie Mac's weekly survey followed more slowly: it held at 7.40% in mid-October, then fell two weeks running to 7.24%.

The reasons the long end fell were mostly outside the Fed. Core PCE matched forecasts at 3.1%, which removed the fear of an inflation surprise. Selling in technology stocks pushed money into bonds. On Friday, Mortgage News Daily tied part of the move to reports that a major AI company's new debt might not be rated investment grade, which markets read as less corporate borrowing ahead. Heavy AI-related issuance had been one of the forces pushing rates up this year.

What the week settled, and what it did not

• Settled. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00%. The economy grew at a 3.4% rate in the third quarter. Core inflation is running at 3.1% and did not surprise.
• Not settled. Whether December brings a hike. Two members voted for one on Wednesday, and forecasters at Goldman Sachs Asset Management and Pantheon Macroeconomics both expect an increase in December.
• The tension. Short rates are pricing a Fed that may tighten once more. Long rates are pricing slower growth ahead. When those two pull apart, mortgage rates follow the long end, which is why borrowers are better off this week despite a hawkish committee.

What this does to a deal you are underwriting now

On a $264,000 loan, 20% down on a $330,000 house, principal and interest at Mortgage News Daily's 7.27% is about $1,805 a month, against $1,815 at the prior Friday's 7.33%. Hold the payment and that is about $1,600 more loan for your exit buyer. The more useful number is the swing: a quarter-point move from here in either direction changes that buyer's budget by about $6,500. A quarter point is roughly what one strong or weak jobs report can do to mortgage rates in a week.

• Fix and flip. Price the exit at today's rate, not at a lower one. If the jobs report runs hot and rates give back a quarter point, a resale priced to the last few weeks of relief loses about $6,500 of buyer budget before it lists. The offer still starts with ARV times 70 to 75%, less repairs and closing costs.
• Long-term rentals. On a $250,000 takeout, the illustrative payment is about $1,709 at 7.27%, $1,751 at 7.52% and $1,667 at 7.02%. That $42 each way is the band a file that is close on coverage lives in. Use the rate on your own term sheet.
• Ground-up construction. A 3.4% growth quarter keeps trade labor busy. Lock bids where you can and carry contingency; the completed-value buyer will face rates near today's when the house is done.
• Single-family resale. Fewer contracts nationally in September means more listings carrying into the holidays. Sellers who missed the fall market are the ones most likely to take a formula-based offer in November and December.
• Multifamily. A 10-year below 5% helps exit-cap assumptions at the margin, but keep the underwriting tied to a 10-year near 5% until the Fed's December decision is behind us.

Houston

HAR's October market report is due in the middle of November. It will be the first local read that reflects October's rate relief in pending sales, and the first sign of whether Houston's growing backlog of unsold homes is starting to clear. The setting has not changed: more supply than the national market, and sellers more willing to listen to a number built from the after-repair value than they were in the spring.

The week ahead

• Monday, November 2. ISM Manufacturing for October, consensus 54.7 after 54.5. Watch the prices-paid index, which was 77.9 in September.
• Tuesday, November 3. Election Day, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot. September JOLTS job openings also come out, after 7.1 million in August. Expect bond-market volatility overnight as results come in.
• Wednesday, November 4. ADP private payrolls for October, after 90,000 in September, and ISM Services, consensus 54.7.
• Thursday, November 5. Freddie Mac's survey, the first to capture Friday's 4.94% 10-year, plus weekly jobless claims.
• Friday, November 6. The October jobs report from BLS. Consensus is 55,000 jobs after 29,000 in September, unemployment at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings up 0.3% for the month.

The question for Monday's brief is whether a 10-year under 5% survives an election and a jobs week. A payroll number well above 55,000 with wages rising faster would make December's hike the base case and likely push the 10-year back over 5%. A number near September's would keep this month's relief in place.

The full report, and every earlier one, is available on ACP's website at acp-lending.com. Investors can sign up at acp-lending.com/investor-brief to receive new reports by email.

Sources

• U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026
• Federal Reserve, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, October 30, 2026
• Mortgage News Daily, Daily Newsletter, October 30, 2026
• Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 29, 2026
• BLS, The Employment Situation, September 2026
• Newsquawk, Week in Focus November 2-6, 2026
• Yardeni QuickTakes, Economic Week Ahead November 2-6

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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