Contract Signings Fell Again in the South — Your Exit Just Got Longer

By Steve Waller · August 28, 2026

Two figures landed this week that matter more to a Texas flip than the mortgage survey did. Contract signings in the South fell 2.2% in July to an index of 85.0, and they sit 3.0% below where they were a year ago. Nationally the Pending Home Sales Index came in at 71.2, down 2.3% on the month and 2.2% on the year. Pending sales lead closings by roughly one to two months, so that is a read on the buyer who has to show up for your exit in October.

Financing costs barely moved. Demand did.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 6.66% for the week ending August 27, one basis point above the prior week, with the 15-year at 5.98%. Chief economist Sam Khater described rates as changing little. The 10-year Treasury, which is what take-out pricing actually tracks, closed at 4.66% on August 26, down from 4.74% on August 21. On the financing side the week was flat to marginally better.

The demand side was not. MBA's survey for the week ending August 21 had purchase applications down 0.3% seasonally adjusted and running 5% below the same week last year, while refinance applications fell 2% and sit 17% below a year ago, with the refinance share at 42.0% of all applications. Joel Kan attributed the pullback to rates reaching their highest level in three weeks. Lawrence Yun's summary of the pending sales data was blunter: houses for sale are sitting on the market longer.

Months to sell is the input that moves the deal

Most investors stress-test the purchase price and the repair budget, then leave the hold period at whatever number they first typed. That is backwards in this market. Take a $225,000 bridge: a six-month hold books six interest payments and six months of taxes, a nine-month hold books nine of each, and nothing else about the deal has changed. On a typical Houston or San Antonio project that swing is larger than the margin the buyer and seller spent two weeks arguing over.

Run the deal twice in the Deal Calculator — once at the timeline you expect and once three months past it. If the second run does not survive, the offer is too high; the financing is not the problem. ACP sizes fix-and-flip financing on the lower of 90% of total project cost and 70% of after-repair value, so an optimistic ARV compounds the same squeeze from the other end. Program detail is on the fix-and-flip page.

The hold is a real exit, not a consolation prize

When the retail buyer is slow, a property that debt-services can be refinanced out of the bridge and held. DSCR financing advances up to 80% of value for borrowers who meet the credit bands, and the decision is easier to make before the listing has sat sixty days than after. The DSCR Calculator reports both the lender's gross-rent ratio and a conservative ratio after vacancy, management and maintenance, which is the one that tells you whether the hold is comfortable. Terms are on the DSCR rental page.

What to watch today

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole address as Chair this morning. It had not been delivered when this brief was written, so nothing in it is reflected above. It is the last scheduled signal before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, and with core PCE running at 3.3% the September path is genuinely unsettled. If you want a file underwritten before that meeting, start the pre-approval now — the checklist is on the loan documents page.

Sources

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week ending August 27, 2026
• FRED 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10), August 26, 2026
• MBA Weekly Applications Survey, week ending August 21, 2026
• NAR Pending Home Sales Report, July 2026
• Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2026

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

All briefs