The Ten-Year Drifted Up to Close August. Friday Decides September.

By Steve Waller · September 1, 2026

Rates closed August going the wrong way

The ten-year Treasury finished last week at 4.73% and ticked to 4.74% Monday. That is up from 4.64% midweek and above the 4.70% we were quoting three weeks ago. Small numbers, but the ten-year is what DSCR financing is priced against, so the drift matters more to a rental buyer than the headlines suggest.

Consumer mortgage rates held flat rather than following it up. The 30-year fixed sat at 6.735%, unchanged on the day, and the 15-year at 6.082%. Lenders absorbed the move rather than passing it through. That gap does not usually stay open long in either direction.

Oil jumped to $86.13, which is the part worth watching. Energy feeding back into inflation prints is the mechanism that keeps the Fed on hold, and the Fed on hold is what keeps your carry cost where it is.

What it means if you are buying. On a $250,000 rental at 75% leverage, ten basis points is roughly $190 a year. Not decisive on its own. But it is the difference between a debt-service coverage ratio that clears at 1.20 and one that clears at 1.18, and that is the number underwriting looks at, not the payment.

Texas is still a supply story, not a demand story

The latest state figures put Texas at 5.4 months of inventory against roughly 153,800 active listings, a median near $342,900, and 62 days on market. Inventory is actually down slightly year over year, which is the first time in a while that sentence has been true.

The read for investors has not changed. There is no shortage of houses to buy. There is a shortage of sellers who will price like it is a buyer's market, and that is where deals are still dying.

Which is worth saying plainly: if your last three offers were rejected, that is an acquisition problem, not a capital problem. The financing has been available the whole time.

The week ahead, and Friday is the one that matters

• Tuesday — ISM Manufacturing
• Wednesday — MBA mortgage applications, factory orders
• Thursday — initial jobless claims, ISM Services
• Friday, 7:30am Central — the August employment report

Friday sets the tone for September. A soft jobs number revives the rate-cut conversation and pulls the ten-year down with it. A hot one does the opposite and takes a September cut off the table. Everything between now and then is noise by comparison.

The Federal Reserve then meets September 15 and 16, with the decision Wednesday the 16th.

The practical version. If you are sizing a DSCR refinance this week, run it at today's quote and again fifteen basis points either side. You will know by Friday lunchtime which side you are on, and the deals that break under that test were always going to be tight.

What we are financing

Fix-and-flip runs 90% of purchase and 100% of renovation, capped at 70% of after-repair value, with the lower of the two governing. Investors with 720+ credit and ten or more completed deals in the last 36 months, five of them in their own state, reach 95% or 100% of purchase under a 75% cap. The property does not have to be in Texas. DSCR advances run 75 to 80% for borrowers meeting the credit bands.

An initial renovation draw can fund at or near closing rather than everything being reimbursement-only. On a six-month clock that is often worth more than a quarter point.

Run your own numbers, free and with no signup: Deal Calculator and DSCR Calculator.

Sources

• FRED — 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10)
• The Mortgage Reports — Mortgage Rates, August 31, 2026
• Texas Real Estate Research Center — Texas Housing Insight, August 2026
• Federal Reserve — FOMC Meeting Calendar

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

All briefs