ACP Lending

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Now the Argument Is About a Hike.

By Steve Waller · September 6, 2026

Payrolls Tripled the Forecast. Now the Argument Is About a Hike.

August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a forecast near 55,000, unemployment held at 4.1%, and the ten-year finished the week at 4.79% after touching 4.81% — its highest since October 2023. The 30-year fixed rose to 6.71%. Friday 11 September brings August CPI, the last major reading before the Fed meets.

Friday answered the question, and the answer was hot

Last Sunday this brief said Friday's employment report would decide September. It did. August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a consensus near 55,000 — roughly three times the forecast — with unemployment holding at 4.1%.

The market response was immediate and it went one way. The ten-year Treasury closed the week at 4.79%, and the two-year reached its highest level since January 2025. The conversation that started the week as "when does the Fed cut" ended it as "could the Fed raise." That is not a small shift in tone for anyone carrying a short-term loan.

The week was a round trip, not a drift

The path matters more than the endpoints here. The ten-year opened the week at 4.75%, ran up to 4.81% — the highest since October 2023 — on hawkish Fed commentary and a jump in oil, fell back to 4.74% on dovish remarks from a Fed governor midweek, then finished at 4.79% after the payrolls print.

That is a seven-basis-point range inside four sessions, with the direction reversing twice. Net movement for the week was four basis points. If you were watching only Monday and Friday you would call it quiet. It was not quiet.

Consumer mortgage rates followed this time rather than absorbing it. The 30-year fixed rose to 6.71% from 6.66%, and the 15-year to 6.04% from 5.98%. A year ago those numbers were 6.50% and 5.60%. Freddie Mac's chief economist described purchase demand as "relatively stable indicating steady interest from buyers adapting to evolving market conditions" — which is a careful way of saying buyers have stopped waiting for something better.

What it means for a deal you are underwriting now

The ten-year is what DSCR financing prices against, so this lands on rental buyers first. On a $250,000 rental at 75% leverage, four basis points is about $75 a year. Immaterial on its own.

The exposure is not this week's four points. It is that the market spent last week repricing the direction. A bridge loan you close in September with a DSCR takeout planned for March is a bet on where that rate sits in six months, and the range of plausible answers just widened in the wrong direction.

The practical version. Two weeks ago the advice here was to stress a deal fifteen basis points either side. That is no longer enough. Underwrite the takeout at the rate you can actually be quoted today, then run it again thirty to forty basis points higher, and see whether the coverage ratio still clears. If the deal only works at a rate nobody is offering you yet, it is not a deal — it is a forecast.

Houston: nothing new this week, and that is worth noting

There was no fresh Houston-area release this week. The figures still standing are the record ones: roughly 38,713 active listings, about 5.4 months of inventory — the most since 2012 — and days on market near 49.

The read has not changed and will not until sellers move. There is no shortage of houses to buy. There is a shortage of sellers who will price like it is a buyer's market, and that is still where deals are dying. If your last three offers went nowhere, that is an acquisition problem, not a capital problem.

The week ahead

Friday is the whole week. Inflation last read 3.4%. After a payrolls number three times the forecast, a hot CPI on top of it would make a September cut unarguable — in the wrong direction. A soft one is the only thing that gets the cut conversation back.

The Federal Reserve then meets September 15 and 16, with the decision Wednesday the 16th. CPI on Friday is the last major input before that room.

What we are financing

Fix-and-flip runs 90% of purchase and 100% of renovation, capped at 70% of after-repair value, with the lower of the two governing. Investors with 720+ credit and ten or more completed deals in the last 36 months, five of them in their own state, reach 95% or 100% of purchase under a 75% cap. The property does not have to be in Texas. DSCR advances run 75 to 80% for borrowers meeting the credit bands.

An initial renovation draw can fund at or near closing rather than everything being reimbursement-only. On a six-month clock, in a week like this one, that timing is worth more than it looks.

Run your own numbers, free and with no signup: Deal Calculator and DSCR Calculator.

Sources

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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