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Builders Pulled More Permits and Broke Less Ground. Houston Has 40,750 Listings.

By Steve Waller · September 7, 2026

Builders Pulled More Permits and Broke Less Ground. Houston Has 40,750 Listings.

Markets are closed for Labor Day, leaving Friday's 4.78% ten-year as the last quote on the board. HAR's July report put Houston at 40,750 active listings — the highest count it has ever recorded — with 5.5 months of supply and 53 days on market. Nationally, July building permits rose 5.0% while housing starts fell 12.4%.

Nothing reprices today

Bond markets are closed for Labor Day on SIFMA's recommendation, so the last quote on the board is Friday's. The ten-year Treasury finished 4 September at 4.78% — one basis point below Tuesday's 4.79%, three above the 4.75% that closed August. Freddie Mac's survey last Thursday had the 30-year fixed at 6.71% and the 15-year at 6.04%. The next reading comes Thursday.

A day when nothing moves is worth using. Everything below was published before this morning, and none of it changes until midweek at the earliest.

Houston set another listing record

HAR's July report — still the most recent; August's is due in the coming days — counted 40,750 active single-family listings across the Houston region, which HAR called the highest level it has ever recorded, up 3.4% year over year. Inventory stood at 5.5 months. That is a bigger number than the roughly 38,700 this brief was citing earlier in the summer, and it moved in the direction that favours a buyer.

The rest of the report tells the same story from other angles. Days on market ran 53, against 50 a year earlier. The median price was $340,000, up 0.6% — after a full year, a rounding error. Sales were up 1.6%, at 8,340 homes.

More houses, sitting longer, at prices that are flat. Buyers have leverage on paper. If your offers still get refused, that is not the market disagreeing with you — it is individual sellers who have not accepted the market they are in, and the ones who have accepted it are often already tied up by a wholesaler.

Permits are an option; starts are a commitment

July's national construction data says something specific about builder conviction. Building permits ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,443,000, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from a year earlier. Housing starts ran 1,239,000 — down 12.4% from June and 13.5% from July 2025. Single-family split the same way: permits 894,000, up 2.5%; starts 808,000, down 9.9%.

A permit costs a fee and preserves the right to build. A start costs money. In July builders bought optionality and declined to spend it, and the gap between those two lines is the clearest read available on what they expect next year.

Completions matter more to your exit than either figure: 1,212,000, down 16.8% from a year ago. In the South, permits ran 755,000 against starts of 645,000. Fewer completions six to twelve months out means less new-build competition when you list. It does nothing about the 40,750 resale listings you are competing with this quarter.

Thin margins are the Texas condition, not a bad month

ATTOM's most recent flipping data, covering the first quarter, put the national gross flipping return at 25.4% on 8.0% of all home sales. Texas returned 5.6% — on a flipping rate of 9.9%, third-highest in the country. More people flipping, for roughly a fifth of the national margin.

And 5.6% is gross: purchase price against resale price, before a dollar of renovation, holding cost, insurance or commission. On a $250,000 purchase that is about $14,000 to absorb all of it. Put 53 days of average market time on top of your renovation schedule and a six-month clock stops being generous — it becomes the budget.

Insurance belongs in the underwriting, not the footnotes

The Dallas Fed's work on Texas homeowners insurance found the median Texas homeowner paying 60% more in 2024 than in 2019, against 30% nationally. The pace has slowed — from 18.7% growth in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025 — but slower growth on a much larger base is still a larger bill. Insurance now runs about 7.9% of housing costs for Texas owners carrying a mortgage.

Two consequences. On a flip, monthly carry runs higher than any national rule of thumb predicts. On a rental, insurance sits inside the coverage ratio, and a premium from last year will not hold. Get a live quote on the actual property before that ratio goes into a file.

The week ahead

Friday is the one that matters. July's CPI ran 3.4% on all items and 2.5% on core, with shelter up 3.2% and accounting for roughly two-thirds of the monthly increase. After a payrolls number three times its forecast, a hot August reading would settle the argument before the Fed even sits down the following week — and not in the direction anyone carrying a bridge loan wants.

What we are financing

Fix-and-flip runs 90% of purchase and 100% of renovation, capped at 70% of after-repair value, with the lower of the two governing. Investors with 720+ credit and ten or more completed deals in the last 36 months, five of them in their own state, reach 95% or 100% of purchase under a 75% cap. The property does not have to be in Texas. DSCR advances run 75 to 80% for borrowers meeting the credit bands.

An initial renovation draw can fund at or near closing rather than everything being reimbursement-only. On a six-month clock, against a 53-day market, that timing is worth more than it looks.

Run your own numbers, free and with no signup: Deal Calculator and DSCR Calculator.

Sources

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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