Four Texas Markets, One Purchase Test, 8,749 Listings. Only One Answer Was the Same Everywhere.

By Steve Waller · September 11, 2026

The test

One question, asked of every listing: what can a buyer pay for this house, repair it, and still sit inside a 75% advance against its after-repair value with closing costs inside the loan? Three lists per market — what can be bought and resold, what can be bought and held, and what is already a rental and for sale. Run 10 and 11 September 2026 across Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, Harris County and the corridor south and east of Houston.

What each market gave back

• Dallas — the outlier. The only market where paying close to list still works: nine listings inside the ten-mile downtown ring carry their own debt at the asking price at 1.25 coverage, sixteen at 1.10. It is also the only market where anything cleared the purchase test on a plain median-condition value, with no renovated-exit assumption.
• Houston · Harris County — the deepest list, 3,666 actives screened. Nothing clears on a median-condition value; three clear on a renovated exit. Five rentals carry their own debt at the asking price.
• San Antonio — two listings clear at both 70% and 75%, a third missed by under $5,000. Eleven of thirteen files with real rent evidence clear 1.25 at the supportable purchase, while only four break a 10% gross yield at the ask.
• Austin metro — nothing clears on a median-condition value, three on a renovated exit, and four tenant-occupied listings in two entire counties. It is not a rental acquisition market at this price point.
• South and east of Houston — one file clears at the ask on a full rehab allowance, six on a lighter one. The gap between those two sentences is the scope assumption, not the market.

The one answer that never changed

531 tenant-occupied listings across three metros. Not one supported a purchase at the seller's number. That is not a market condition, it is a pricing structure: a tenanted house is sold to a buyer purchasing income, so it is priced at retail with a lease attached. The test is more generous on those files than on a flip, because repairs are a make-ready allowance rather than a renovation budget. It still fails. A tenant in place is not a discount — it is a feature the seller charges for.

Three things that decided more outcomes than the market did

• Where the closing costs sit. Moving them inside the advance — which is what zero out of pocket actually means — cut one board in half. Twenty-four files within 20% of the ask became twelve. Closing costs are banded, not a percentage: roughly 6.7% of a $150,000 purchase against the 3% a percentage model assumes.
• The tax rate. Austin metro rates on these files ran from 1.77% to 2.94% — over a point of spread on the same house, about $370 a month on a $400,000 value. On one file the highest rent on the entire board still failed coverage purely because of the rate.
• The listing record. Reading it removed the number one file on three of four boards. The two largest apparent discounts anywhere in the study were already-renovated houses, where the whole spread was a repair allowance applied to a house that needed no repairs. Retail condition is the exit, never the entry.

What it means before you sign

Every one of these boards is useful for the same reason: it tells a buyer the figure to write on a contract and how far under the ask it sits. A required cut is the job, not a failure. All of it is arithmetic that can be done before a contract is signed — value from real closed sales, a repair band stated honestly as a band, closing costs at their real size, and coverage at the price actually being paid. The calculators on this site model the same thing on a single property. The buyers who get hurt are the ones who find out what a house supports after they already own it.

Method, briefly

Maximum purchase = advance rate × after-repair value − repairs − closing costs, solved circularly against a banded closing schedule and run at both 70% and 75%. Value is the median closed price per square foot in the property's own subdivision and zip, within 20% of its size and 15 years of its vintage, capped at the deepest sale in that set, and no value is published below three matched sales. Coverage is 75% loan to value, 7.75% over thirty years, each listing's own published tax rate, $2,100 insurance and a 7% haircut on gross rent. Source: HARMLS, pulled 10 and 11 September 2026. Tenant-occupied status is a Houston-only field, which is why the Dallas rental list could not be built the same way — a data limitation, not a market finding.

Sources

• HARMLS / Matrix — active listings, closed sales and closed leases, pulled 10-11 September 2026

Market data is from public sources and is provided for information only. Nothing here is an offer of credit, a rate quote, or investment advice. Financing is subject to underwriting, lender approval, appraisal or valuation, title, insurance, property eligibility and program availability.

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